MUCH is being made of the fact that a large number of the world’s nations will be holding general elections this year. Some will of course be a farce: Vladimir Putin will be reaffirmed as the czar of Russia. Others could spell tragedy such as the USA where another Trump presidency would mean a major challenge to liberal democracy globally; while in Britain there is hope for a centre government and the end to damaging right-wing populism. And there is another possibility, as yet unannounced ‒ in Israel. If Benyamin Netanyahu and his fanatical allies can be unseated there opens up a faint glimmer of hope for peace in Palestine.
And then we have South Africa on 29 May, thirty years down the line from liberation with its seventh election based on universal franchise. In a land of the unexpected, election year has already produced some oddities. There has been an uptick of arson in remote locations in the Western Cape (opposition controlled) and a remarkable upswing in matric passes in KwaZulu-Natal (ANC under serious threat from several directions). And there has also been the posturing at The Hague based on what is promoted as a triumph of legal activism. Just so, but why then has not a single person named in the Zondo Commission report been prosecuted? The same goes for the known instigators of the July 2021 insurrection; and, of course, the Guptas whose extradition was so badly bungled it might have been deliberate. What the National Prosecuting Authority and government lawyers are capable of in selected and politically expedient circumstances is truly remarkable; especially in election year.
Voting for the parliament of 400 members is entirely proportional and based on a party list system. Now for the first time that method may not deliver an ANC majority government. The liberation movement, the ruling party as it chooses to describe itself, is today little more than a corrupt and criminal racket populated by venal rent seekers who readily resort to strongarm tactics and violence. It is also increasingly unpopular, although those who have voted for it previously are just as likely to abstain as vote for something else. And the ANC is already outlining a scenario for defeat calling it regime change. It should not surprise anyone that this is how the ANC might describe the outcome of a largely free and fair election. But here again, Pretoria is these days little more than an echo chamber for global authoritarianism where elections, if they are held at all, have a predetermined outcome. So, if the ANC loses, President Ramaphosa has suggested, this will be retribution organised by the CIA, MI6, Mossad (take your pick) for its heroic fight against global apartheid and pursuing a case against Israel.
There are plenty of political parties among whom voters can chose, well over 350 although some are purely regional. And given the list system any one of them has to win only 0.25% of the total vote to gain a parliamentary seat. At the last election in 2019 this amounted to just 31 000 votes. New political parties are by and large a product of ANC infighting and while that goes back years this centripetal tendency has intensified. Most, being formed around specific personalities, if they have flourished have done so only briefly. The only breakaway, also formed around a strong personality, to have grown consistently is Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFFs).
Like the Nazis of 1930s Germany, the EFFs employ socialist-sounding language but are blatantly fascist: uniforms, military-sounding titles and staccato and aggressive language. Political theatre, often violent, is their recruiting ground and their attraction is as a gathering of the aggrieved. Their origins in the ANC are unmistakeable, so a coalition with it would be a logical homecoming, although possibly hampered by personality clashes. With this brand of coalition, extreme policies of expropriation and looting can be expected.
Then, there are the antics of Jacob Zuma, disgraced ex-president, racketeer and would-be despot. It’s doubtful if his party of thwarted tenderpreneurs and the generally disaffected will attract much support nationally, but they could damage the ANC significantly in KwaZulu-Natal. In the meantime, there is the question of who has rights to the name and symbolism of uMkhonto we Sizwe. Judging by the reactions of many genuine MK veterans this will be a bitter dispute. There are clearly no coalition possibilities here especially since Zuma’s ANC membership is suspended. There is also a strong suspicion that this is MK samaZulu; in other words, a militant ethnic Zulu party with a greater liking for insurrection than the ballot box.
Few people are considering the possibility of an ANC government requiring the support of just a handful of MPs to give it a workable majority. These could come from an alphabet-soup of grand-sounding acronyms and abbreviations that stand for little more than personal ambition. One of them, for argument’s sake, might be Sbu Mpisane’s Gap Fixers of South Africa Party. Mpisane is a former Durban traffic cop who developed a luxurious lifestyle far beyond his apparent means through his former wife’s tenderpreneurship. It is hard to see what a person who has benefited from South Africa’s corrupt system of state capture has to offer. But he could wield significant political clout in propping up an ANC coalition government.
The ANC is clearly on the downslope: divided and failing to deliver; bereft of ideas and locked into a fossilised ideology that bears little relation to the needs of a modern state such as green energy and innovative entrepreneurship; increasingly allied to some of the world’s most brutal regimes such as Russia and Iran. The parties that occupy the centre of South Africa’s political spectrum are making little headway even when they clearly oppose destructive practices such as cadre deployment. The prospects of them forming an administration are zero; so, unless the ANC pulls off an unexpected victory, overt extremists will enter government.
The chances of South Africa yielding a disappointing election result are distressingly high. But at least, in contrast to some of South Africa’s closest friends, it will be an outcome broadly based on democratic principles.